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Dan Goodman's prediction and politics journal.

Tuesday, July 22, 2003

Sunday 20 July 2003. The Rainbow Foods in Uptown now has paintings of the neighborhood high up on the walls. I don't know how long they've been there.

Businesses headed for bankruptcy have a certain feel to them. Rainbow had that feeling toward the end of Fleming's ownership. The takeover by Roundy's has improved the stores greatly. Mostly little things, like the bathrooms smelling better. But I'm finding food quality a bit more dependable.

Monday 21 July. Nate Bucklin had emailed the Natter list, asking for help moving his stepson either that evening or Tuesday evening. It was fairly late when I saw the message. I called to volunteer for Tuesday evening.

Tuesday 22. Warning: The next bit will interest people intensely interested in predicting the future, and/or in how and what others predict.

From http://www.ideosphere.com

Claim MEBord - Middle East borders change
Category: News:World News bid 0, ask 100, last 0
Owner: 861, David Cary
Judge: 2568, JPO

created: 2003/04/18
due date: 2005/12/15
The Claim

Between 2003-06-01 and 2005-10-15, either:

* (a) At least one of the countries currently in the Middle East (as of the day this claim becomes active) will split into (at least) 2 countries, or
* (b) at least one of the countries currently in the Middle East will merge with some other nation (perhaps one of the other Middle East countries).

For the purposes of this claim, a "country" is an area labeled as a country on the majority of reasonably unbiased maps.

For the purposes of this claim, the "Middle East" is the area covered by

* Bahrain
* Egypt
* Iraq
* Iran
* Israel
* Jordan
* Kuwait
* Lebanon
* Oman
* Qatar
* Saudi Arabia
* Syrian Arab Republic
* United Arab Emirates
* West Bank
* Yemen

The judge is responsible for finding up-to-date and "reasonably unbiased" sources, and for posting their URLs in the judge's statement.

Look at what the cartographers "say" in their maps. Ignore what non-cartographers say or do.

---- related information, not officially part of this claim ----

Claim?claim=USAGeo

The area labeled "Palestine (U.K.)" in 1945 maps has split into Israel and West Bank in 2003 maps. So "West Bank" counts as a country in 2003 for the purposes of this claim. If the West Bank becomes a completely independent nation labeled "Palestine", that is not enough for this claim to become true.

There are many slightly different definitions of "Middle East". Forgive me for introducing yet another one. This definition of the "Middle East" is similar to, but not exactly the same as "Western Asia" at http://www.un.org/Depts/Cartographic/english/ or "Southwest Asia" at http://geography.about.com/library/maps/blrmideast.htm .

Charter of the United Nations : Charter of the United Nations (1945) Article 2 paragraph 4. "All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations."

Why 2005-10-15 ? Chris Hibbert persuaded me it needs to be at least 2 years in the future, and I picked a random day of that year. I prefer claims spread throughout the year, rather than have them all expire on Jan 01.

I hope this will be extremely easy to judge.

Judge's Statement
None

The Market
Price Plot for life of MEBord


Call from Nate Bucklin -- moving help not needed.

Writing: I thought I'd figured out how to make an outline which I could actually stick to. No. I got farther ahead with "The Caterpillar on The Leaf" -- and discarded much of what I'd outlined. (Some of it got combined.)

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