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Dan Goodman's prediction and politics journal.

Tuesday, July 29, 2003

Tuesday 29 July 2003. Congress was told about this in May. A press release was issued on May 20th (http://www.darpa.mil/body/tia/tia_report_page.htm). Now, two Senators are shocked to learn of this. Then they told the news media, who previously didn't have a squicking clue.

"Report to Congress: Subsection 111(b) of division M of the Consolidated Appropriations Resolution, 2003 (Public Law 108-7) required the submission of a report concerning the Terrorism (formerly “Total”) Information Awareness program. The report was jointly submitted to Congress by the Secretary of Defense, the Attorney General and the Director of Central Intelligence, 5/20/03."

"WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A Pentagon plan to get information on the Middle East by setting up an online futures market where investors would bet on the probability of war, terrorism and other events is going to be scrapped, Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz said on Tuesday.

"'My understanding is it's going to be terminated,' Wolfowitz told members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He added that while the Defense Department was supposed to be imaginative, 'it sounds like maybe they got too imaginative' with the online futures market plan.

"The Policy Analysis Market, launched online at http://www.policyanalysismarket.org by the Pentagon's Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, aimed to let anonymous traders log on and wager money on when and whether such events as the overthrow of the Jordanian monarchy might take place."

From the Washington Post: 'Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul D. Wolfowitz told a Senate hearing that he learned about the program from a newspaper story he read en route to the hearing, which dealt with postwar reconstruction in Iraq.

'"I share your shock at this kind of program," he said. "We'll find out about it, but it is being terminated."'

To repeat: "The report was jointly submitted to Congress by the Secretary of Defense, the Attorney General and the Director of Central Intelligence." The first of these is Wolfowitz's boss.

http://www.darpa.mil/ DARPA

Websites where you can bet on future events:

http://www.ideosphere.com/fx/ Foresight Exchange (Trades aren't in real money, but I gather some participants make side bets.)

http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/ The Iowa Electronic Markets (Real money political bets; currently on winner of the Democratic Presidential nomination and Winner of the Presidential election.)

http://tradesports.com/ TradeSports (the trades aren't only on sports)

In another threat to American society, news.google.com now has a France-centered site in French. This joins the US-centric main site; other English-language sites centered on the UK, India, Australia, New Zealand and Canada, and a German-language site centered on Germany.
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