Politics and Futures

Wednesday 16 July. I've been thinking about a future in which really good forecasting techniques are widely available for individual use. And in which about twenty percent of the US population uses those techniques. Among other uses, they would buy and sell futures in the future.

In a small way, this has already begun.

From http://www.ideosphere.com:

Claim Dean04 - Howard Dean elected 2004
Category: Politics:US Politics bid 5, ask 30, last 0
Owner: 4199, fuzzyfuture
Judge: 4962, mbrubeck
created: 2003/07/04
due date: 2005/01/20
The Claim

This claim is marked yes if former Governor of Vermont Howard Dean is elected president of the United States of America in 2004. This claim will be TRUE even if Howard Dean stages a coup. If there are events which make it confusing who the US president is, as of 2005-02-01, this claim is true if Dean is leading a sovereign government in at least part of the territory of the United States of America(as of 2001-01-01) that has recognition of at least one of the UN Security Council permanent members(Britain, France,China and Russia) other than the United States.

Note that under said definition, the claim is not marked NO if Dean does not win the Democratic nomination. He can still run as an independent, have a write-in election, or stage a coup.

The claim will be concluded on inauguration day, January 20, 2005.
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Ideosphere's market doesn't use real money (though I believe some people make side bets.)

Offhand, I think it's likely there will be a rerun of the Goldwater and McGovern script:
Presidential aspirant who attracts enthusiastic followers; considered too extreme by his party's ruling group. Dean is following the script, so far. What's next in the script is: Gets Presidential nomination. Bombs in the general election.

For a political futures market which does use real money, see: http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/markets/Pres04_VS.html
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Current Markets 2004 US Presidential Vote Share Market

2004 Presidential Election Vote-Share Market
2004 Democratic National Convention Market
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Computer Industry Returns Market
MSFT (Microsoft) Price Level Market

2004 US PRESIDENTIAL VOTE SHARE MARKET

The IEM 2004 US Presidential Vote Share Market is a real-money futures market where contract payoffs will be determined by the popular vote cast in the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election. Please see the market prospectus for specific details of this market.

The market is open to all traders world-wide. Consult our on-line trader's manual for additional information.

Overview: Brief overview of trading information for the 2004 US Presidential Vote Share Market.

Prospectus: Description of the 2004 US Presidential Vote Share Market.

IEM Data: IEM Data concerning the 2004 US Presidential Vote Share Market.

IEM Daily Prices Graph: Graph of midnight "closing" prices for the 2004 US Presidential Vote Share Market.

IEM WebExchange Users Guide: For information on how to trade.

Political Sites

The Democratic National Committee.
Republican National Committee.
CNN/Time AllPolitics.com .

Related IEM Markets

2004 Democratic National Convention Market
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Nobody's betting on Dean yet. Odd, considering his ability to find volunteers and donors.


There was an ice cream social in Bryant Square Park, run by the CARAG neighborhood organization. CARAG's territory begins across the street from where I live; the park is five blocks away.

Last year, their food stand sign said "soda" -- and the Twin Cities used to be solid "pop" territory. This year, it said "drinks".