Dan Goodman's prediction and politics journal.

Monday, September 29, 2003

Monday September 29, 2003. I'm not quite well enough to deal with the real world. Therefore, a few words on California politics: however, the recall election comes out, the California Republican Party will lose.

They obviously lose if Gray Davis isn't recalled. They obviously lose if Davis is replaced by Cruz Bustamante.

But I think they also lose if Arnold Scharzenegger becomes governor. Unless, of course, he turns out to be much more competent at the job than I expect him to be.

One confident prediction: if Scharzenegger (or any other Republican) becomes governor, there will be an attempt at a recall. Anyone care to estimate how many hours it will take to get started? How many minutes?

From a discussion on Forward Motion (http://fmwriters.com) on the 27th:

]The beginning is when things start to change. I see two choices: First, give a brief look at "the way things have always been and always will be". The University of Tamlar, for example, where Professor Grimp is explaining to students that dragons have never existed; that they're a metaphor for volcanoes. In the next scene, Professor Grimp is walking home when a dragon swoops down and carries him away.

Second, start when things begin to change _for the person this part of the story is happening to_. Things "the way they've always been" haven't changed noticeably yet, so your description can establish what the status quo is. Salna Blackmountain has just arrived at the University, to study dragon lore. She has just finished putting things away in her dorm room, goes for a walk to familiarize herself with the campus, and then there's this huge shadow, and someone (Professor Grimp, though she doesn't know that yet) above her is screaming "Get a fire extinguisher!"[

It's disconcerting to realize how much this was influenced by Algis Budrys's essays on writing.

From EurekAlert (http://www.eurekalert.org/pubnews.php)

Public Release: 29-Sep-2003
Psychological Science
Infants can use previous observations to interpret new ones
Twelve-month-old infants can use previous observations as a basis to understand new interactions, although five-month-olds cannot, according to a Yale study.

Public Release: 29-Sep-2003
Analytical Chemistry
On the antiquity of pots: New method developed for dating archaeological pottery
Researchers at Britain's University of Bristol have developed the first direct method for dating pottery by examining animal fats preserved inside the ceramic walls. Archaeologists have long dated sites by the visual appearance of pottery fragments found around the site. The new analytical technique will allow archaeologists to more accurately determine the age of pottery and help resolve some longstanding disputes in the world of antiquities.

Public release date: 29-Sep-2003

Popular Canadian writing born in US, says scholar
Canadian fiction and non-fiction were not born in Toronto or some other large Canadian centre but, rather, in New York City, says University of Toronto English professor Nick Mount.

By 1901, only 56 people in Canada identified themselves as writers because a "shocking number had left for New York and, to a lesser degree, London," he says. Mount is studying the relationship between American writers and those writers who left Canada in the 19th century. "Most scholars are aware that many Canadian writers such as Ernest Thompson Seton, Sophie Almon Hensley and Palmer Cox had to leave Canada to make their fortunes. However, no one has examined the historical and social consequences of having all these Canadian writers in one place [New York]," Mount says.

This exodus of talent resulted in expatriate communities that formed in New York's pubs, rooming houses and publishing outlets, he says. These gatherings helped to promote and provide public exposure to those writers still living in Canada. "Many Canadians started to get published in American magazines through the efforts of these expatriates," Mount says in a forthcoming book. "Also, these expatriate writers proved to those still in Canada that it was possible to make a living from books, poetry and magazine articles."

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