Dan Goodman's prediction and politics journal.

Sunday, January 18, 2004

Sunday January 18, 2004.

Athletes' use of performance-enhancing drugs will not be policed away. Genetic manipulation may be next.

Investors Point to Iowa Winner
Published: January 18, 2004

Investors Point To Iowa Winner

Some tracking polls show the presidential contest in Iowa as too close to call, but the invisible hand of the market is pointing to the favorite.

Howard Dean is the choice of two political futures markets, where thousands of speculators, unlike journalists, put their money where their punditry is. They buy and sell contracts that pay off if a candidate wins.


Predict when your staff will quit
The Canadian government is now using data-mining techniques to calculate the groups of employees most likely to leave an organization. It determines which organizational and employee characteristics, such as salary, level of education and training or length of service, contribute to turnover. Employees are ranked and assigned individual probabilities for voluntarily leaving within a specific time frame.

Dynamic pricing models to advance?
Smart Auctions Tuomas Sandholm, a researcher and professor at Carnegie Mellon University, has developed techniques using artificial intelligence to help make business-to-business online auctions more fair, flexible and powerful. Perhaps it'll prove good enough to allow all businesses to run their own version of eBay to add an additional sales channel.

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