Dan Goodman's prediction and politics journal.

Friday, May 07, 2004

Friday May 7, 2004. Scientific American for May 1998 had an article on applying physics methods to investment and business decisions. (And a bit on governmental-decision applications.) As of 2004, those methods don't seem to work as well as random choice.

Of course, even people using really accurate methods would make bad decisions. If they were computing for themselves, wishful thinking and other emotional factors would lead them to interpret the results inaccurately. And if they were selling their predictions, they would be under pressure to make those predictions more palatable.

And I got what I think is the seed of a story. A situation, and a bit about a focus character.

Now I merely need to do something with the basic idea which Phil Dick, Chad Oliver, Michael Flynn, and others didn't.
From EurekAlert http://www.eurekalert.org/pubnews.php
Public Release: 7-May-2004
Astronomy & Astrophysics
Two extremely hot exoplanets caught in transit
Using the FLAMES multi-fiber spectrograph on the Very Large Telescope at the ESO Paranal Observatory (Chile), astronomers were able to measure accurate radial velocities for 41 OGLE transit candidate objects. For two of the stars, the measured velocity changes revealed the presence of planetary-mass companions in extremely short-period orbits. These planets form a new class of "very hot Jupiters," which are extremely close to their host stars, orbiting them in less than two (Earth) days.
Accelerating universe will limit technology
7 May 2004

The acceleration of the expansion of the universe places limits on future developments in technology according to two US cosmologists. Lawrence Krauss and Glenn Starkman of Case Western Reserve University have shown that the acceleration could put a fundamental limit on the total amout of information that can be stored and processed in the future (arXiv.org/abs/astro-ph/0404510). They also calculate that Moore's Law will remain valid for no more than 600 years -- although workers in the semiconductor industry are more pessimistic and think that the famous law will break down in the next decade or two.
From Yoon Ha Lee http://www.livejournal.com/users/yhlee/72067.html?#cutid1


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