Dan Goodman's prediction and politics journal.

Saturday, July 17, 2004

Every so often, Americans realize that heroin is dangerous. Many recreational drug users turn to a safer drug -- cocaine. And at such times, they'll have the experts on their side; for example, prominent experts will be saying that cocaine isn't really addictive.

After a while, the astonishing discovery will be made that cocaine is dangerous; and people will turn to nice, safe heroin. That's the stage we're at now.

There's a cycle in American politics between liberalism and conservatism. Only a cynic would consider this analogous to the heroin-cocaine cycle.

We've been in the conservative phase for a while now. I think it's hit the conservative high point, and is now turning again. Even if the White House stays under conservative control this election, conservatives will lose control of Congress in the 2006 elections.

What's likely to change? Federal regulators will act with less regard for the sensibilities of corporations and of medical professionals. Certain kinds of discrimination will be more likely to annoy the Federal Government into action. There will be shifts in who pays what share of Federal taxes.
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